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Red125
352631.4
976821.2
1021728.6
Blue103
945614.2
142130.8
375320.1
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9269050150200125103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+2Auto
+10Teleop
+22Endgame
+22Fouls
AutonomousRed +2
3Leave0
2Coral scored#3
12Coral points13
15Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +8
14Coral scored#18
52Coral points64
3Processor algae#1
6Net algae#4
18Processor points6
24Net points16
42Algae points22
94Total teleop86
Reef
5L4#6
4L3#7
4L2#4
3L1 · trough#4
25Game pieces#26
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +22
0Foul points0
125Total score103

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
31.42.1
29.031.1
Auto5.1
Teleop22.4
End4.0
red by 0.6
30.81.7
27.429.1
Auto2.5
Teleop22.8
End5.5
Second
28.63.2
25.028.2
Auto4.9
Teleop20.0
End3.7
red by 8.4
3753
#42
20.11.7
18.119.7
Auto5.0
Teleop14.0
End1.2
Third
9768
#45
21.23.2
16.719.9
Auto3.7
Teleop15.6
End2.0
red by 6.9
9456
#46
14.22.6
10.913.5
Auto4.0
Teleop9.4
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
65%Auto oddsEarned58%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsEarned40%Barge oddsMissed