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Red126
999428.9
410725.1
978725.2
Blue92
299248.1
999812.2
597115.5
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions719605015020012692

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+16Teleop
+28Endgame
+34Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave6
3Coral scored#1
16Coral points3
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +9
17Coral scored#13
62Coral points47
3Processor algae#2
2Net algae#5
18Processor points12
8Net points20
26Algae points32
88Total teleop79
Reef
6L4#6
7L3#4
5L2#3
2L1 · trough#1
25Game pieces#21
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +34
6Foul points0
126Total score92

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.94.6
22.126.7
Auto8.1
Teleop19.0
End1.5
blue by 19.3
48.10.0
48.748.7
Auto10.9
Teleop34.4
End2.9
Second
25.22.8
19.021.8
Auto3.9
Teleop16.3
End5.0
red by 9.7
5971
#18
15.50.0
15.115.1
Auto2.5
Teleop11.0
End2.0
Third
25.12.8
20.723.5
Auto3.3
Teleop19.5
End2.3
red by 12.9
9998
#16
12.20.0
11.411.3
Auto1.9
Teleop9.0
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
35%Auto oddsEarned26%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
59%Barge oddsEarned19%Barge oddsMissed