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Red130
804486.9
299248.1
945617.2
Blue111
191243.4
36423.9
375321.6
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19682050100150250300130111

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+9Teleop
+13Endgame
+19Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
6Leave3
3Coral scored#3
14Coral points16
20Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +8
21Coral scored#13
76Coral points48
1Processor algae#3
4Net algae#6
6Processor points18
16Net points24
22Algae points42
98Total teleop90
Reef
11L4#8
8L3#3
3L2#4
2L1 · trough#1
29Game pieces#25
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +19
6Foul points0
130Total score111

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
86.92.5
85.583.0
Auto17.4
Teleop58.5
End10.9
red by 43.5
1912
#12
43.41.3
43.745.0
Auto10.4
Teleop31.0
End1.9
Second
48.12.5
53.951.5
Auto10.9
Teleop34.4
End2.9
red by 24.2
364
#4
23.91.3
21.022.4
Auto6.5
Teleop12.1
End5.3
Third
9456
#17
17.23.0
15.612.6
Auto4.5
Teleop12.3
End0.5
blue by 4.4
3753
#14
21.61.3
20.922.2
Auto6.2
Teleop15.0
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsMissed83%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
82%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
68%Barge oddsMissed33%Barge oddsMissed