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Red86
36423.9
832424.4
191243.4
Blue117
375321.6
410725.1
433631.7
76%Model gave it24%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1037205015086117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+41
Endgame+31
Fouls+31
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave3
3Coral scored#3
17Coral points17
23Total auto20
TeleoperatedBlue +44
10Coral scored#13
35Coral points45
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#9
6Processor points12
8Net points36
14Algae points48
49Total teleop93
Reef
6L4#5
3L3#5
2L2#5
2L1 · trough#1
16Game pieces#27
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Penalties & totalBlue +31
0Foul points0
86Total score117

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1912
#12
43.40.2
44.444.2
Auto10.4
Teleop31.0
End1.9
red by 11.7
4336
#11
31.71.0
30.331.3
Auto5.3
Teleop25.5
End1.0
Second
8324
#22
24.40.2
25.425.2
Auto4.7
Teleop18.7
End1.2
blue by 0.7
25.11.0
23.724.6
Auto3.3
Teleop19.5
End2.3
Third
364
#4
23.90.2
24.924.7
Auto6.5
Teleop12.1
End5.3
red by 2.3
3753
#14
21.61.0
20.221.1
Auto6.2
Teleop15.0
End0.5