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Qual 262025 MA State Championship
Red150
490963.3
127733.8
66346.4
Blue117
801358.7
110058.7
573524.2
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15616580100120140180200220240150117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+57Teleop
+55Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave0
4Coral scored#5
21Coral points23
30Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +50
24Coral scored#13
86Coral points46
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
12Processor points6
8Net points4
20Algae points10
106Total teleop56
Reef
9L4#4
12L3#7
4L2#5
3L1 · trough#2
32Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +33
0Foul points22
150Total score117

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4909
#8
63.30.6
63.5→64.1
Auto16.3
Teleop38.7
End8.3
red by 4.6
1100
#4
58.73.6
61.3→57.7
Auto12.2
Teleop39.4
End7.1
Second
663
#19
46.40.6
45.2→45.8
Auto7.7
Teleop38.4
End0.4
blue by 12.3
8013
#7
58.73.6
61.7→58.1
Auto9.3
Teleop40.7
End8.8
Third
1277
#15
33.80.6
32.6→33.2
Auto5.9
Teleop20.2
End7.7
red by 9.7
5735
#24
24.23.6
25.9→22.3
Auto8.6
Teleop16.1
End-0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
32%Coral oddsMissed38%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
72%Barge oddsEarned81%Barge oddsEarned