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Qual 52025 MA State Championship
Red92
573524.2
1025438.7
127733.8
Blue168
46759.5
287635.8
500053.6
3%Model gave it97%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10118505015020025092168

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+24
Teleop+76
Endgame+78
Fouls+76
AutonomousBlue +24
6Leave6
3Coral scored#7
13Coral points37
19Total auto43
TeleoperatedBlue +52
12Coral scored#22
43Coral points79
1Processor algae#3
2Net algae#3
6Processor points18
8Net points12
14Algae points30
57Total teleop109
Reef
5L4#11
4L3#9
3L2#4
3L1 · trough#5
18Game pieces#35
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +76
2Foul points0
92Total score168

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
10254
#11
38.70.5
33.1→32.5
Auto9.7
Teleop19.9
End9.1
blue by 20.8
467
#21
59.50.6
62.1→62.6
Auto13.6
Teleop38.1
End7.8
Second
1277
#15
33.80.5
32.3→31.8
Auto5.9
Teleop20.2
End7.7
blue by 19.8
5000
#13
53.60.6
54.7→55.3
Auto17.2
Teleop32.1
End4.3
Third
5735
#24
24.20.5
26.8→26.2
Auto8.6
Teleop16.1
End-0.5
blue by 11.6
2876
#9
35.80.6
37.5→38.0
Auto9.3
Teleop26.0
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
62%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
19%Coral oddsMissed15%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
78%Barge oddsEarned78%Barge oddsEarned