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Red220
287774.2
8877.8
596210.8
Blue134
46759.5
1025438.7
620146.8
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1841670100300400500600220134

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+2Auto
+86Teleop
+98Endgame
+86Fouls
AutonomousRed +2
9Leave6
8Coral scored#8
39Coral points40
48Total auto46
TeleoperatedRed +84
28Coral scored#12
100Coral points42
4Processor algae#1
6Net algae#4
24Processor points6
24Net points16
48Algae points22
148Total teleop64
Reef
14L4#4
9L3#6
9L2#6
4L1 · trough#4
46Game pieces#25
BargeRed +12
24Cage & park12
24Total endgame12
Penalties & totalRed +86
0Foul points12
220Total score134

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
88
#2
77.81.3
74.375.6
Auto18.6
Teleop50.0
End9.3
red by 18.3
467
#21
59.50.7
59.158.4
Auto13.6
Teleop38.1
End7.8
Second
74.21.3
70.772.0
Auto20.8
Teleop43.8
End9.5
red by 27.4
6201
#17
46.80.7
46.445.7
Auto10.8
Teleop29.2
End6.9
Third
5962
#23
10.81.3
7.38.6
Auto2.5
Teleop8.8
End-0.5
blue by 27.9
38.70.7
38.337.6
Auto9.7
Teleop19.9
End9.1