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Red215
46759.5
1025438.7
620146.8
Blue154
862640.4
287635.8
964454.9
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions166147050100200250300215154

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
+29Teleop
+55Endgame
+61Fouls
AutonomousBlue +1
3Leave0
7Coral scored#7
33Coral points37
36Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +30
28Coral scored#22
101Coral points79
3Processor algae#3
7Net algae#5
18Processor points18
28Net points20
46Algae points38
147Total teleop117
Reef
18L4#11
8L3#9
5L2#6
4L1 · trough#3
45Game pieces#37
BargeRed +26
26Cage & park0
26Total endgame0
Penalties & totalRed +61
6Foul points0
215Total score154

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
467
#21
59.50.8
58.459.1
Auto13.6
Teleop38.1
End7.8
red by 4.6
9644
#16
54.90.2
55.154.9
Auto11.9
Teleop40.8
End2.2
Second
6201
#17
46.80.8
45.746.5
Auto10.8
Teleop29.2
End6.9
red by 6.4
8626
#18
40.40.2
40.540.4
Auto6.4
Teleop33.1
End0.9
Third
38.70.8
37.638.3
Auto9.7
Teleop19.9
End9.1
red by 2.9
35.80.2
35.935.8
Auto9.3
Teleop26.0
End0.5