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Qual 212025 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)
Red164
283445.2
22659.3
283257.5
Blue115
86257.6
999312.3
686134.5
89%Model gave it11%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions215139050100200250300164115

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+8Auto
+59Teleop
+49Endgame
+49Fouls
AutonomousRed +8
0Leave3
6Coral scored#4
30Coral points19
30Total auto22
TeleoperatedRed +51
21Coral scored#9
76Coral points33
3Processor algae#3
6Net algae#4
18Processor points18
24Net points16
42Algae points34
118Total teleop67
Reef
12L4#6
6L3#3
5L2#2
4L1 · trough#2
36Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +49
0Foul points0
164Total score115

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
226
#2
59.31.7
55.5→53.7
Auto14.3
Teleop35.2
End9.7
red by 1.7
862
#14
57.60.7
66.7→65.9
Auto13.5
Teleop37.3
End6.7
Second
2832
#13
57.51.7
66.4→64.7
Auto15.4
Teleop37.4
End4.7
red by 23.0
6861
#4
34.50.7
34.1→33.4
Auto6.6
Teleop21.3
End6.6
Third
2834
#8
45.21.7
57.1→55.3
Auto9.8
Teleop29.7
End5.7
red by 33.0
9993
#19
12.31.2
13.6→12.5
Auto5.0
Teleop3.2
End4.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned81%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
56%Coral oddsMissed70%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
84%Barge oddsEarned94%Barge oddsEarned