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Red85
217025.2
971017.4
490529.9
Blue125
226217.0
804636.9
42932.5
19%Model gave it81%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6392020408010012014016085125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
Teleop+22
Endgame+40
Fouls+40
AutonomousBlue +10
6Leave0
1Coral scored#4
3Coral points19
9Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +12
9Coral scored#16
34Coral points58
3Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
18Processor points6
12Net points12
30Algae points18
64Total teleop76
Reef
4L4#7
3L3#4
1L2#5
2L1 · trough#4
16Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +18
6Cage & park24
6Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +40
6Foul points6
85Total score125

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4905
#27
29.90.3
25.225.6
Auto6.1
Teleop19.3
End4.4
blue by 7.0
8046
#13
36.92.8
38.341.1
Auto6.9
Teleop23.3
End6.7
Second
2170
#22
25.20.4
20.420.8
Auto3.1
Teleop18.1
End3.9
blue by 7.3
429
#10
32.51.7
28.530.2
Auto7.0
Teleop17.8
End7.7
Third
9710
#30
17.40.4
18.118.5
Auto4.8
Teleop10.8
End1.7
red by 0.4
2262
#20
17.02.8
16.118.9
Auto3.8
Teleop10.9
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
44%Auto oddsMissed78%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
29%Barge oddsMissed68%Barge oddsEarned