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Red122
206746.6
174041.1
500046.9
Blue116
111940.5
169958.4
207926.1
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11311480100120140160122116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
Teleop+10
0Endgame0
+6Fouls
AutonomousBlue +1
9Leave6
3Coral scored#4
17Coral points21
26Total auto27
TeleoperatedBlue +9
14Coral scored#19
52Coral points67
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
12Processor points6
12Net points12
24Algae points18
76Total teleop85
Reef
7L4#10
4L3#4
3L2#6
3L1 · trough#3
22Game pieces#27
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +6
6Foul points0
122Total score116

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5000
#11
46.90.5
38.038.5
Auto14.8
Teleop30.2
End1.8
blue by 11.5
1699
#21
58.41.1
53.654.7
Auto7.9
Teleop44.4
End6.1
Second
2067
#12
46.60.5
34.234.7
Auto10.6
Teleop27.3
End8.7
red by 6.1
1119
#18
40.51.1
27.328.4
Auto6.9
Teleop29.0
End4.6
Third
1740
#19
41.10.5
36.436.9
Auto11.7
Teleop22.6
End6.8
red by 14.9
2079
#37
26.11.1
18.619.7
Auto7.0
Teleop17.2
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned68%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
67%Barge oddsEarned42%Barge oddsMissed