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Red122
854423.0
500046.9
23054.9
Blue168
111940.5
174041.1
127732.5
81%Model gave it19%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions128100406080120140160180200122168

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
Teleop+6
Endgame+40
Fouls+46
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave6
7Coral scored#5
35Coral points24
44Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +20
16Coral scored#14
58Coral points52
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#8
6Processor points12
12Net points32
18Algae points44
76Total teleop96
Reef
10L4#7
5L3#4
4L2#4
4L1 · trough#4
27Game pieces#29
BargeBlue +34
2Cage & park36
2Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +46
0Foul points6
122Total score168

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
230
#5
54.90.1
48.148.0
Auto18.2
Teleop30.5
End6.1
red by 13.8
1740
#19
41.13.8
36.640.3
Auto11.7
Teleop22.6
End6.8
Second
5000
#11
46.90.1
39.939.8
Auto14.8
Teleop30.2
End1.8
red by 6.3
1119
#18
40.53.8
30.234.0
Auto6.9
Teleop29.0
End4.6
Third
8544
#35
23.00.2
24.324.2
Auto4.0
Teleop17.4
End1.6
blue by 9.5
32.53.8
27.531.3
Auto5.4
Teleop20.2
End7.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
88%Auto oddsEarned77%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
46%Barge oddsMissed48%Barge oddsEarned