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Red78
416910.5
500046.9
490535.3
Blue104
860431.7
545939.7
175742.0
19%Model gave it81%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7410305015078104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
Teleop+6
Endgame+14
Fouls+26
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave3
3Coral scored#3
14Coral points13
23Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +13
9Coral scored#13
33Coral points46
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
6Processor points6
12Net points12
18Algae points18
51Total teleop64
Reef
5L4#7
3L3#4
2L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
16Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +8
4Cage & park12
4Total endgame12
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +26
0Foul points12
78Total score104

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5000
#11
46.90.5
36.136.6
Auto14.8
Teleop30.2
End1.8
red by 4.9
1757
#15
42.00.1
42.442.5
Auto5.5
Teleop28.3
End8.1
Second
4905
#24
35.30.5
29.930.4
Auto7.8
Teleop23.0
End4.5
blue by 4.4
39.70.1
28.428.5
Auto8.8
Teleop29.4
End1.5
Third
4169
#36
10.50.5
4.75.2
Auto3.2
Teleop5.5
End1.8
blue by 21.2
8604
#23
31.70.1
20.120.1
Auto4.4
Teleop25.3
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
63%Auto oddsEarned64%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
28%Barge oddsMissed31%Barge oddsEarned