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Red199
207926.1
115367.4
23054.9
Blue144
964448.7
715340.7
542244.9
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions162136100150200250199144

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+1Teleop
+19Endgame
+55Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
3Leave9
7Coral scored#4
33Coral points21
36Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +5
22Coral scored#19
79Coral points70
2Processor algae#3
3Net algae#5
12Processor points18
12Net points20
24Algae points38
103Total teleop108
Reef
12L4#9
6L3#7
6L2#3
5L1 · trough#4
34Game pieces#31
BargeRed +18
24Cage & park6
24Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +55
36Foul points0
199Total score144

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
67.40.4
66.166.5
Auto10.6
Teleop46.5
End10.3
red by 18.7
9644
#16
48.70.2
48.548.7
Auto9.5
Teleop36.6
End2.6
Second
230
#5
54.90.4
53.553.9
Auto18.2
Teleop30.5
End6.1
red by 9.9
5422
#14
44.90.2
44.744.9
Auto9.3
Teleop31.5
End4.1
Third
2079
#37
26.10.4
24.725.2
Auto7.0
Teleop17.2
End2.0
blue by 14.6
7153
#13
40.70.2
40.540.7
Auto8.3
Teleop27.8
End4.6