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Red163
115367.4
207926.1
23054.9
Blue140
174041.1
545939.7
169958.4
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions162142100120180200220240163140

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+5Teleop
+17Endgame
+23Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave9
5Coral scored#3
26Coral points14
26Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +2
24Coral scored#19
87Coral points69
2Processor algae#4
4Net algae#5
12Processor points24
16Net points20
28Algae points44
115Total teleop113
Reef
8L4#8
9L3#7
6L2#4
6L1 · trough#3
35Game pieces#31
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +23
6Foul points0
163Total score140

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
67.40.3
65.766.0
Auto10.6
Teleop46.5
End10.3
red by 9.1
1699
#21
58.40.1
57.757.8
Auto7.9
Teleop44.4
End6.1
Second
230
#5
54.90.3
53.153.4
Auto18.2
Teleop30.5
End6.1
red by 13.8
1740
#19
41.10.1
40.440.5
Auto11.7
Teleop22.6
End6.8
Third
2079
#37
26.10.3
24.324.6
Auto7.0
Teleop17.2
End2.0
blue by 13.5
39.70.1
39.039.1
Auto8.8
Teleop29.4
End1.5