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Red57
524315.1
179312.4
859033.9
Blue74
903318.3
450522.2
482127.9
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions55742040801001205774

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+7
Endgame+17
Fouls+17
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave0
1Coral scored#2
3Coral points12
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +4
11Coral scored#9
38Coral points34
1Processor algae#1
0Net algae#2
6Processor points6
0Net points8
6Algae points14
44Total teleop48
Reef
4L4#4
4L3#2
3L2#3
1L1 · trough#2
13Game pieces#14
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +17
0Foul points0
57Total score74

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.90.4
29.128.7
Auto4.8
Teleop27.3
End1.7
red by 6.0
27.90.1
27.927.7
Auto5.2
Teleop15.8
End6.9
Second
5243
#24
15.10.4
9.79.3
Auto3.9
Teleop9.0
End2.1
blue by 7.1
4505
#11
22.20.1
13.112.9
Auto4.5
Teleop16.4
End1.3
Third
1793
#21
12.40.4
11.210.8
Auto1.9
Teleop8.9
End1.6
blue by 5.9
9033
#15
18.30.2
20.320.0
Auto2.3
Teleop12.2
End3.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
23%Auto oddsMissed29%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsMissed38%Barge oddsEarned