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Red44
61423.3
832611.5
138927.3
Blue74
823012.8
450522.2
872625.2
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions72664060801004474

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+10
+2Endgame
Fouls+30
AutonomousBlue +4
6Leave0
1Coral scored#3
6Coral points16
12Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +6
3Coral scored#5
12Coral points18
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
0Processor points0
4Net points4
4Algae points4
16Total teleop22
Reef
1L4#4
1L3#2
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
5Game pieces#9
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Penalties & totalBlue +30
0Foul points32
44Total score74

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1389
#19
27.30.5
27.727.3
Auto5.8
Teleop15.3
End6.2
red by 2.0
8726
#10
25.20.4
25.324.9
Auto5.7
Teleop17.9
End1.6
Second
614
#14
23.30.4
23.723.3
Auto5.1
Teleop16.7
End1.6
red by 1.1
4505
#11
22.20.4
22.321.9
Auto4.5
Teleop16.4
End1.3
Third
8326
#26
11.50.4
12.011.5
Auto4.1
Teleop3.4
End4.0
blue by 1.2
8230
#28
12.80.5
12.912.4
Auto3.7
Teleop7.7
End1.4