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Red112
83665.7
111122.9
379325.9
Blue105
533849.6
99925.6
253714.9
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions145560100200112105

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
Teleop+7
+7Endgame
+7Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
9Leave6
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points7
19Total auto13
TeleoperatedBlue +13
10Coral scored#16
37Coral points58
2Processor algae#2
7Net algae#5
12Processor points12
28Net points20
40Algae points32
77Total teleop90
Reef
4L4#4
3L3#5
3L2#5
2L1 · trough#3
21Game pieces#24
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +7
0Foul points0
112Total score105

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
836
#3Sur
65.71.2
64.162.9
Auto14.6
Teleop41.6
End9.4
red by 16.2
49.62.4
40.643.0
Auto11.0
Teleop39.1
End-0.5
Second
25.91.2
30.229.0
Auto6.9
Teleop16.6
End2.4
red by 11.0
2537
#20
14.92.4
13.115.5
Auto2.1
Teleop10.9
End1.9
Third
22.91.2
24.923.6
Auto4.3
Teleop16.4
End2.2
red by 17.3
9992
#28Sur
5.64.0
4.48.4
Auto1.0
Teleop4.0
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned66%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
28%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
59%Barge oddsEarned7%Barge oddsMissed