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Red82
859247.4
17193.9
454136.7
Blue73
907240.8
632615.2
253430.0
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions941050501508273

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+35Teleop
+33Endgame
+9Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
0Leave6
7Coral scored#1
33Coral points3
33Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +11
9Coral scored#7
31Coral points24
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
6Processor points6
8Net points4
14Algae points10
45Total teleop34
Reef
5L4#2
6L3#3
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
19Game pieces#10
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +9
0Foul points24
82Total score73

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.40.1
46.346.3
Auto11.4
Teleop30.7
End5.2
red by 6.5
40.81.0
42.941.9
Auto7.7
Teleop31.6
End1.6
Second
4541
#14
36.70.1
35.735.6
Auto11.0
Teleop23.8
End1.9
red by 6.8
2534
#19
30.01.0
32.031.1
Auto7.9
Teleop19.9
End2.2
Third
1719
#27
3.90.1
2.82.8
Auto2.4
Teleop1.4
End0.1
blue by 11.3
6326
#24
15.21.0
17.216.3
Auto4.8
Teleop8.8
End1.6