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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions553602060801001447

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+31
Endgame+33
Fouls+33
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave0
1Coral scored#2
3Coral points9
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +28
1Coral scored#6
4Coral points22
0Processor algae#1
0Net algae#1
0Processor points6
0Net points4
0Algae points10
4Total teleop32
Reef
1L4#3
0L3#2
1L2#2
0L1 · trough#1
2Game pieces#10
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +33
0Foul points0
14Total score47

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
20.43.8
21.417.6
Auto4.4
Teleop14.9
End1.0
blue by 8.8
29.21.3
18.019.3
Auto5.7
Teleop20.3
End3.3
Second
2537
#37
12.93.8
13.910.1
Auto4.2
Teleop7.2
End1.5
blue by 0.6
8622
#19
13.41.3
10.111.4
Auto3.3
Teleop9.8
End0.4
Third
5243
#26
9.23.8
12.79.0
Auto5.1
Teleop3.3
End0.8
red by 1.9
5841
#27
7.31.3
7.18.4
Auto3.8
Teleop1.4
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
28%Auto oddsMissed26%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
23%Barge oddsMissed15%Barge oddsMissed