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Red81
111114.0
511518.2
832611.0
Blue61
788613.8
621312.1
686316.5
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions435402060801008161

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+10
Endgame+10
+20Fouls
Autonomouslevel
3Leave6
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points3
9Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +10
7Coral scored#10
26Coral points36
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
6Processor points6
4Net points4
10Algae points10
36Total teleop46
Reef
3L4#5
2L3#3
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#2
10Game pieces#13
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +20
30Foul points0
81Total score61

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5115
#12
18.20.4
12.612.2
Auto5.0
Teleop9.3
End3.9
red by 1.7
6863
#33
16.50.3
16.316.0
Auto4.6
Teleop10.6
End1.3
Second
1111
#29
14.00.4
11.411.0
Auto3.3
Teleop9.1
End1.7
red by 0.2
7886
#30
13.80.3
14.313.9
Auto2.3
Teleop10.4
End1.2
Third
8326
#34
11.00.4
12.311.9
Auto5.1
Teleop4.4
End1.5
blue by 1.1
6213
#31
12.10.3
12.512.2
Auto2.9
Teleop7.9
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
21%Auto oddsMissed21%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
12%Barge oddsEarned13%Barge oddsMissed