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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions544302060801005936

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+21Teleop
+17Endgame
+23Fouls
Autonomouslevel
3Leave3
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points6
9Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +21
8Coral scored#5
30Coral points17
0Processor algae#0
3Net algae#1
0Processor points0
12Net points4
12Algae points4
42Total teleop21
Reef
4L4#1
2L3#2
1L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
12Game pieces#7
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +23
6Foul points0
59Total score36

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5115
#12
18.20.0
14.214.2
Auto5.0
Teleop9.3
End3.9
red by 1.9
4638
#13
16.31.1
13.512.4
Auto7.1
Teleop7.5
End1.8
Second
6863
#33
16.50.0
13.913.9
Auto4.6
Teleop10.6
End1.3
red by 5.0
1915
#21
11.51.1
8.97.8
Auto3.1
Teleop6.8
End1.6
Third
4541
#14
12.90.0
13.013.0
Auto3.7
Teleop8.0
End1.2
red by 4.4
2849
#36
8.51.1
14.113.0
Auto2.7
Teleop4.2
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
21%Auto oddsMissed32%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsMissed12%Barge oddsMissed