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Red39
88838.1
29639.8
832611.0
Blue53
141827.6
171916.7
445613.8
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions625102040801003953

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
Teleop+12
Endgame+20
Fouls+14
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave3
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points6
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +19
2Coral scored#4
7Coral points16
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
0Processor points6
4Net points8
4Algae points14
11Total teleop30
Reef
2L4#1
1L3#2
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
6Game pieces#8
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +14
6Foul points0
39Total score53

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
888
#4
38.12.0
32.730.7
Auto9.9
Teleop25.0
End3.2
red by 10.5
27.60.6
25.125.8
Auto8.5
Teleop10.6
End8.5
Second
8326
#34
11.02.0
12.610.6
Auto5.1
Teleop4.4
End1.5
blue by 5.7
1719
#24
16.70.6
11.311.9
Auto3.7
Teleop11.0
End2.0
Third
2963
#17
9.82.0
7.15.1
Auto2.7
Teleop6.2
End0.9
blue by 4.0
4456
#18
13.80.6
10.811.4
Auto2.3
Teleop9.2
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
30%Auto oddsEarned33%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
17%Barge oddsMissed43%Barge oddsEarned