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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions615102040801001201408237

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+41Teleop
+39Endgame
+45Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave6
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
3Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +44
14Coral scored#5
49Coral points19
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#0
12Processor points6
8Net points0
20Algae points6
69Total teleop25
Reef
3L4#2
5L3#1
4L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
18Game pieces#6
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +45
6Foul points0
82Total score37

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
620
#5
36.92.3
20.622.9
Auto8.3
Teleop25.8
End2.9
red by 7.7
29.20.9
19.018.0
Auto5.7
Teleop20.3
End3.3
Second
611
#28
16.32.3
19.421.7
Auto4.4
Teleop10.5
End1.3
red by 7.1
5243
#26
9.20.9
13.712.7
Auto5.1
Teleop3.3
End0.8
Third
7886
#30
13.82.3
12.214.5
Auto2.3
Teleop10.4
End1.2
red by 5.3
2849
#36
8.50.9
12.611.7
Auto2.7
Teleop4.2
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
32%Auto oddsMissed26%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsMissed22%Barge oddsMissed