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Red77
862216.3
172743.8
Blue61
1022427.1
379320.0
970913.4
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions786940601001207761

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+2
+10Endgame
+16Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave0
1Coral scored#2
3Coral points12
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +1
11Coral scored#9
40Coral points33
0Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
0Processor points6
8Net points8
8Algae points14
48Total teleop47
Reef
6L4#3
3L3#4
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
14Game pieces#14
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +16
6Foul points0
77Total score61

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.80.3
41.841.5
Auto6.7
Teleop29.0
End8.1
red by 16.7
27.10.5
24.123.7
Auto4.9
Teleop21.3
End0.9
Second
8622
#16
16.30.3
13.413.1
Auto2.9
Teleop11.6
End1.8
blue by 3.7
3793
#12
20.00.8
22.521.7
Auto4.5
Teleop14.5
End1.0
Third
8.30.5
15.114.6
Auto3.7
Teleop4.2
End0.4
blue by 5.1
9709
#27
13.40.5
15.214.8
Auto2.4
Teleop9.4
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
59%Auto oddsMissed34%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
46%Barge oddsEarned18%Barge oddsMissed