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Red160
19061.7
456424.0
632972.0
Blue148
568738.8
13146.8
23816.8
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1759950150200250160148

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
Teleop+4
+16Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave0
9Coral scored#7
44Coral points37
44Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +11
13Coral scored#20
48Coral points71
3Processor algae#3
5Net algae#2
18Processor points18
20Net points8
38Algae points26
86Total teleop97
Reef
7L4#9
7L3#8
5L2#5
3L1 · trough#5
30Game pieces#32
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +12
6Foul points10
160Total score148

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.00.1
72.071.9
Auto18.9
Teleop44.6
End8.5
red by 25.2
131
#4
46.80.9
45.546.4
Auto7.4
Teleop37.0
End2.4
Second
190
#2
61.70.1
61.761.6
Auto17.9
Teleop36.0
End7.8
red by 22.9
5687
#14
38.80.9
37.538.3
Auto8.2
Teleop26.1
End4.5
Third
4564
#29
24.00.1
24.024.0
Auto4.3
Teleop18.6
End1.1
red by 7.2
238
#25
16.80.9
15.516.4
Auto4.4
Teleop8.4
End4.0