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Red148
905512.0
9545.3
46741.1
Blue86
542225.1
404119.5
172923.3
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1127820406010012014016018014886

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+46Teleop
+50Endgame
+62Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
6Leave9
6Coral scored#2
31Coral points10
37Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +28
17Coral scored#10
61Coral points37
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
6Processor points6
16Net points12
22Algae points18
83Total teleop55
Reef
10L4#5
6L3#4
5L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
28Game pieces#16
BargeRed +4
16Cage & park12
16Total endgame12
Penalties & totalRed +62
12Foul points0
148Total score86

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
95
#6
45.30.6
43.844.4
Auto13.0
Teleop28.0
End4.3
red by 20.2
5422
#10
25.10.1
25.425.4
Auto4.4
Teleop18.6
End2.0
Second
467
#3
41.10.6
39.540.2
Auto6.2
Teleop26.3
End8.7
red by 17.8
1729
#23
23.30.1
23.623.6
Auto5.6
Teleop13.0
End4.7
Third
9055
#26
12.00.6
10.411.0
Auto5.8
Teleop3.1
End3.1
blue by 7.5
4041
#22
19.50.1
19.719.8
Auto4.0
Teleop10.7
End4.8