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Qual 152025 NE District Pine Tree Event
Red116
17240.9
767431.8
5019.8
Blue86
252321.6
447327.0
404128.7
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions80825060709010011012013011686

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+20Teleop
+30Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
0Leave6
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points3
13Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +16
12Coral scored#13
43Coral points47
2Processor algae#2
8Net algae#3
12Processor points12
32Net points12
44Algae points24
87Total teleop71
Reef
4L4#4
5L3#4
4L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
25Game pieces#19
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
0Foul points0
116Total score86

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
172
#8
40.91.7
30.6→32.3
Auto9.5
Teleop23.9
End7.4
red by 12.1
4041
#11
28.70.5
24.3→23.8
Auto4.9
Teleop20.9
End2.9
Second
7674
#15
31.82.9
24.7→27.5
Auto5.8
Teleop23.2
End2.8
red by 4.8
4473
#19
27.00.5
24.3→23.8
Auto4.7
Teleop18.8
End3.5
Third
501
#28
9.81.7
13.0→14.8
Auto3.5
Teleop4.9
End1.3
blue by 11.8
2523
#29
21.60.8
21.5→20.7
Auto4.0
Teleop16.5
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
32%Auto oddsMissed38%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
54%Barge oddsEarned58%Barge oddsMissed