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Red71
454636.8
84216.5
802324.9
Blue79
5852.8
790710.5
5019.8
9%Model gave it91%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions569802040801201401607179

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
+12Teleop
+4Endgame
Fouls+8
AutonomousBlue +4
3Leave9
3Coral scored#2
13Coral points11
16Total auto20
TeleoperatedRed +16
11Coral scored#8
41Coral points29
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#0
6Processor points6
4Net points0
10Algae points6
51Total teleop35
Reef
4L4#4
3L3#3
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
16Game pieces#11
BargeBlue +8
4Cage & park12
4Total endgame12
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +8
0Foul points12
71Total score79

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4546
#14
36.82.3
23.626.0
Auto8.2
Teleop25.8
End2.8
blue by 16.0
58
#7
52.80.7
47.246.5
Auto9.3
Teleop37.1
End6.4
Second
8023
#20
24.91.4
21.623.1
Auto4.2
Teleop17.6
End3.1
red by 14.3
7907
#17
10.51.2
14.913.7
Auto5.0
Teleop4.7
End0.9
Third
8421
#30
6.52.3
4.66.9
Auto1.7
Teleop4.4
End0.5
blue by 3.3
501
#28
9.80.7
15.314.6
Auto3.5
Teleop4.9
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
54%Auto oddsEarned58%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsMissed30%Barge oddsMissed