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Red38
754621.5
921310.1
513312.3
Blue20
347212.9
930123.5
928029.5
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions438001001502003820

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
+4Teleop
+6Endgame
+18Fouls
AutonomousBlue +1
0Leave9
2Coral scored#0
9Coral points1
9Total auto10
TeleoperatedRed +5
3Coral scored#1
9Coral points4
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
0Processor points0
0Net points0
0Algae points0
9Total teleop4
Reef
2L4#1
1L3#0
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
5Game pieces#1
BargeRed +2
2Cage & park0
2Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +18
18Foul points6
38Total score20

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7546
#21
21.51.8
21.920.1
Auto3.8
Teleop16.3
End1.4
blue by 8.0
9280
#37
29.54.0
30.226.2
Auto4.7
Teleop22.8
End1.9
Second
5133
#24
12.31.8
14.112.3
Auto2.6
Teleop7.6
End2.1
blue by 11.1
9301
#15
23.54.0
27.523.5
Auto6.8
Teleop10.7
End6.0
Third
9213
#12
10.11.8
10.48.6
Auto2.8
Teleop6.4
End0.9
blue by 2.7
3472
#27
12.94.0
16.912.9
Auto4.6
Teleop8.7
End-0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
15%Auto oddsMissed72%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
11%Barge oddsMissed53%Barge oddsMissed