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Red44
440341.7
1022517.9
921310.1
Blue41
478211.2
99992.8
670227.2
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions92810501504441

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+3Teleop
+3Endgame
+3Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave0
3Coral scored#2
13Coral points9
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +4
4Coral scored#6
16Coral points22
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
6Processor points0
4Net points8
10Algae points8
26Total teleop30
Reef
2L4#3
3L3#2
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
9Game pieces#10
Bargelevel
2Cage & park2
2Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +3
0Foul points0
44Total score41

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.72.2
50.248.0
Auto8.2
Teleop26.6
End7.0
red by 14.6
6702
#33
27.20.9
32.932.0
Auto3.5
Teleop22.6
End1.0
Second
17.92.7
11.08.3
Auto3.0
Teleop13.2
End1.6
red by 6.6
4782
#35
11.20.9
18.417.5
Auto3.8
Teleop4.6
End2.8
Third
9213
#12
10.12.7
15.813.1
Auto2.8
Teleop6.4
End0.9
red by 7.4
9999
#23
2.81.5
3.31.8
Auto2.0
Teleop-0.2
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
55%Auto oddsEarned82%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
43%Barge oddsMissed20%Barge oddsMissed