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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions576102040801005526

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
+3Teleop
+5Endgame
+29Fouls
AutonomousBlue +10
0Leave9
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points7
6Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +13
4Coral scored#3
15Coral points10
0Processor algae#0
2Net algae#0
0Processor points0
8Net points0
8Algae points0
23Total teleop10
Reef
1L4#1
2L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
7Game pieces#4
BargeRed +2
2Cage & park0
2Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +29
24Foul points0
55Total score26

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5248
#16
22.02.4
18.716.3
Auto3.1
Teleop18.0
End0.8
red by 4.5
8300
#26
17.52.8
16.313.5
Auto1.8
Teleop14.3
End1.5
Second
16.32.4
16.414.0
Auto4.3
Teleop9.9
End2.1
red by 4.2
12.14.5
19.515.0
Auto4.0
Teleop6.7
End1.4
Third
9241
#32
15.52.4
17.415.0
Auto3.3
Teleop9.2
End3.0
red by 3.4
9203
#28
12.12.8
16.814.0
Auto3.6
Teleop6.3
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
36%Auto oddsMissed35%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
29%Barge oddsEarned28%Barge oddsMissed