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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8210120406012014011747

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+38Teleop
+48Endgame
+70Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave0
4Coral scored#3
20Coral points16
26Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +28
9Coral scored#5
33Coral points17
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#0
6Processor points6
12Net points0
18Algae points6
51Total teleop23
Reef
5L4#3
4L3#1
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
17Game pieces#9
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +70
24Foul points2
117Total score47

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.31.6
35.937.5
Auto17.2
Teleop25.8
End9.3
red by 13.1
39.25.1
34.229.1
Auto8.7
Teleop28.8
End1.6
Second
39.11.6
26.928.5
Auto6.6
Teleop28.9
End3.6
red by 6.6
6081
#10
32.55.1
33.428.3
Auto7.8
Teleop22.9
End1.8
Third
16.31.6
9.911.5
Auto4.3
Teleop9.9
End2.1
blue by 3.1
7226
#30
19.45.1
17.912.8
Auto4.0
Teleop14.9
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
66%Auto oddsEarned72%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
55%Barge oddsEarned46%Barge oddsMissed