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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions336102040801004457

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
Teleop+15
Endgame+13
Fouls+13
AutonomousRed +6
6Leave6
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
12Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +21
4Coral scored#8
16Coral points27
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
0Processor points6
4Net points8
4Algae points14
20Total teleop41
Reef
2L4#3
2L3#2
1L2#2
0L1 · trough#1
6Game pieces#11
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +13
6Foul points6
44Total score57

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9743
#18
18.90.6
9.510.1
Auto5.9
Teleop11.6
End1.4
blue by 9.7
858
#14
28.60.2
23.323.4
Auto4.5
Teleop22.7
End1.4
Second
9241
#32
15.50.6
8.39.0
Auto3.3
Teleop9.2
End3.0
blue by 5.5
5623
#21
21.00.2
15.615.8
Auto3.8
Teleop14.9
End2.3
Third
9672
#31
15.40.6
14.415.0
Auto3.1
Teleop11.2
End1.1
red by 3.9
9238
#38
11.50.2
10.610.8
Auto1.6
Teleop8.9
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
30%Auto oddsEarned40%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
19%Barge oddsMissed32%Barge oddsMissed