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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1066605015012877

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+39Teleop
+45Endgame
+51Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave9
3Coral scored#0
13Coral points0
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +32
17Coral scored#13
60Coral points46
4Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
24Processor points6
16Net points16
40Algae points22
100Total teleop68
Reef
5L4#4
7L3#5
5L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
28Game pieces#18
BargeRed +6
6Cage & park0
6Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +51
6Foul points0
128Total score77

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.51.7
33.435.1
Auto10.3
Teleop34.1
End8.0
red by 34.2
4810
#35
18.30.0
22.922.9
Auto2.9
Teleop14.9
End0.4
Second
39.21.7
31.332.9
Auto8.7
Teleop28.8
End1.6
red by 21.3
9671
#11
17.90.0
15.315.4
Auto5.3
Teleop11.5
End1.1
Third
858
#14
28.61.7
24.426.1
Auto4.5
Teleop22.7
End1.4
red by 11.9
9566
#36
16.70.0
23.423.5
Auto3.1
Teleop13.1
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
60%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
47%Barge oddsEarned33%Barge oddsMissed