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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8772204060801001201408084

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
Teleop+4
Endgame+4
Fouls+4
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave0
1Coral scored#2
7Coral points12
16Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +8
10Coral scored#13
36Coral points46
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
12Processor points6
12Net points16
24Algae points22
60Total teleop68
Reef
5L4#6
3L3#3
2L2#3
1L1 · trough#3
16Game pieces#20
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +4
0Foul points0
80Total score84

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6081
#10
32.50.1
33.233.0
Auto7.8
Teleop22.9
End1.8
red by 3.3
8126
#19
29.11.2
25.826.9
Auto4.1
Teleop22.5
End2.6
Second
9566
#36
16.70.1
17.217.1
Auto3.1
Teleop13.1
End0.4
blue by 7.0
23.71.2
19.520.6
Auto3.3
Teleop18.5
End1.9
Third
7256
#17
15.90.1
16.816.7
Auto3.3
Teleop10.3
End2.2
blue by 0.4
16.31.2
12.013.1
Auto4.3
Teleop9.9
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsEarned43%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsMissed49%Barge oddsMissed