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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions71500204060801001201822

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+8Teleop
+8Endgame
Fouls+4
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave0
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points6
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +5
2Coral scored#1
7Coral points2
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
0Processor points0
0Net points0
0Algae points0
7Total teleop2
Reef
1L4#1
1L3#1
0L2#0
0L1 · trough#0
2Game pieces#2
Bargelevel
2Cage & park2
2Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +4
0Foul points12
18Total score22

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5623
#21
21.04.8
20.215.4
Auto3.8
Teleop14.9
End2.3
red by 4.2
4453
#22
16.84.1
20.416.4
Auto4.3
Teleop8.5
End4.0
Second
7226
#30
19.44.8
24.519.7
Auto4.0
Teleop14.9
End0.6
red by 7.3
9203
#28
12.14.1
14.010.0
Auto3.6
Teleop6.3
End2.2
Third
7256
#17
15.94.8
16.411.6
Auto3.3
Teleop10.3
End2.2
red by 6.2
9703
#34
9.64.1
12.18.0
Auto4.0
Teleop3.9
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
35%Auto oddsMissed29%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
29%Barge oddsEarned24%Barge oddsMissed