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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions889505015020050112

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+24
Teleop+44
Endgame+56
Fouls+62
AutonomousBlue +24
3Leave0
2Coral scored#7
9Coral points36
12Total auto36
TeleoperatedBlue +20
6Coral scored#9
20Coral points32
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#4
6Processor points6
8Net points16
14Algae points22
34Total teleop54
Reef
3L4#5
3L3#3
1L2#5
1L1 · trough#3
11Game pieces#21
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +62
0Foul points6
50Total score112

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
858
#14
28.61.8
28.726.9
Auto4.5
Teleop22.7
End1.4
blue by 23.7
52.31.9
46.848.7
Auto17.2
Teleop25.8
End9.3
Second
5676
#25
23.31.8
25.023.2
Auto3.9
Teleop15.1
End4.3
red by 4.4
9743
#18
18.91.9
17.018.9
Auto5.9
Teleop11.6
End1.4
Third
9566
#36
16.71.8
17.615.8
Auto3.1
Teleop13.1
End0.4
red by 0.8
15.81.9
13.915.8
Auto4.5
Teleop9.1
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
62%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
14%Barge oddsMissed26%Barge oddsEarned