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Red116
555522.6
86257.4
523918.9
Blue101
918221.2
872828.4
817929.2
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions106834060120140160180116101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+20Auto
Teleop+1
+9Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +20
9Leave0
5Coral scored#2
23Coral points12
32Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +21
9Coral scored#14
32Coral points49
3Processor algae#3
3Net algae#4
18Processor points18
12Net points16
30Algae points34
62Total teleop83
Reef
5L4#5
4L3#4
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#4
20Game pieces#23
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +15
6Foul points0
116Total score101

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
862
#1
57.40.5
52.352.8
Auto13.0
Teleop36.0
End8.4
red by 28.2
8179
#27
29.21.5
24.826.3
Auto3.1
Teleop24.5
End1.5
Second
5555
#24
22.60.7
18.719.5
Auto4.1
Teleop16.2
End2.4
blue by 5.8
8728
#14
28.41.5
28.129.6
Auto4.6
Teleop21.9
End1.9
Third
5239
#21
18.90.7
20.120.8
Auto4.9
Teleop11.2
End2.7
blue by 2.3
9182
#34
21.21.1
21.122.1
Auto5.9
Teleop13.8
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
83%Auto oddsEarned63%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
18%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
75%Barge oddsEarned19%Barge oddsMissed