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Red78
877417.3
553117.6
634423.9
Blue158
5144.3
918221.2
86257.4
1%Model gave it99%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3612205010015020078158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+20
Teleop+76
Endgame+86
Fouls+80
AutonomousBlue +20
3Leave9
1Coral scored#3
3Coral points17
6Total auto26
TeleoperatedBlue +56
9Coral scored#16
34Coral points58
1Processor algae#3
3Net algae#8
6Processor points18
12Net points32
18Algae points50
52Total teleop108
Reef
4L4#8
3L3#7
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
14Game pieces#30
BargeBlue +10
14Cage & park24
14Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +80
6Foul points0
78Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6344
#13
23.90.6
13.614.3
Auto5.4
Teleop11.5
End7.0
blue by 33.4
862
#1
57.42.6
44.346.9
Auto13.0
Teleop36.0
End8.4
Second
5531
#37
17.61.1
16.817.8
Auto3.5
Teleop12.4
End1.7
blue by 26.7
51
#7
44.34.3
34.038.3
Auto6.2
Teleop32.0
End6.1
Third
8774
#16
17.30.6
11.812.5
Auto2.8
Teleop12.5
End2.0
blue by 3.9
9182
#34
21.22.9
21.624.5
Auto5.9
Teleop13.8
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
34%Auto oddsMissed83%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
36%Barge oddsEarned72%Barge oddsEarned