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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions48990204060801201401609095

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+12
Teleop+13
Endgame+11
Fouls+5
AutonomousBlue +12
3Leave0
0Coral scored#3
0Coral points15
3Total auto15
TeleoperatedBlue +1
11Coral scored#14
39Coral points52
4Processor algae#2
3Net algae#3
24Processor points12
12Net points12
36Algae points24
75Total teleop76
Reef
4L4#8
4L3#5
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
18Game pieces#22
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +5
6Foul points0
90Total score95

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3936
#14
25.52.1
10.612.6
Auto2.7
Teleop20.7
End2.1
blue by 7.2
244
#7
32.70.3
29.329.6
Auto5.0
Teleop25.5
End2.2
Second
9106
#33
20.13.4
17.821.2
Auto2.4
Teleop15.1
End2.6
blue by 11.2
3452
#18
31.30.3
27.127.4
Auto3.8
Teleop24.9
End2.6
Third
5227
#16
20.02.1
13.515.6
Auto3.4
Teleop13.9
End2.7
blue by 3.7
5056
#27
23.70.3
22.723.0
Auto2.7
Teleop19.6
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
16%Auto oddsMissed35%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
20%Barge oddsMissed40%Barge oddsMissed