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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions75892040601001201401604981

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+9
Teleop+18
Endgame+32
Fouls+32
AutonomousBlue +9
3Leave9
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points3
3Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +9
9Coral scored#13
34Coral points45
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
6Processor points0
4Net points8
10Algae points8
44Total teleop53
Reef
3L4#6
3L3#4
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
11Game pieces#16
BargeBlue +14
2Cage & park16
2Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +32
0Foul points0
49Total score81

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5056
#27
23.71.2
23.021.8
Auto2.7
Teleop19.6
End1.3
blue by 12.5
5535
#13
36.20.7
25.426.1
Auto7.0
Teleop22.2
End7.0
Second
9106
#33
20.11.9
21.219.3
Auto2.4
Teleop15.1
End2.6
blue by 1.3
9208
#25
21.40.7
29.129.8
Auto5.4
Teleop11.7
End4.3
Third
5462
#29
15.01.9
22.320.4
Auto2.9
Teleop10.3
End1.8
blue by 5.1
9227
#11
20.10.7
20.421.0
Auto4.4
Teleop13.7
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
36%Auto oddsMissed52%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
23%Barge oddsMissed57%Barge oddsEarned