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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10670204060801201401609970

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+9Teleop
+17Endgame
+29Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave9
2Coral scored#1
12Coral points3
15Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +6
11Coral scored#11
38Coral points38
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
12Processor points6
8Net points8
20Algae points14
58Total teleop52
Reef
4L4#4
4L3#4
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
17Game pieces#15
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +29
12Foul points0
99Total score70

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.70.4
31.531.1
Auto6.9
Teleop18.5
End8.3
red by 8.2
3936
#14
25.50.3
13.613.8
Auto2.7
Teleop20.7
End2.1
Second
31.80.4
23.923.4
Auto6.4
Teleop23.4
End2.1
red by 9.3
4325
#19
22.50.3
17.617.9
Auto4.3
Teleop13.1
End5.1
Third
9758
#15
31.30.4
23.623.2
Auto3.8
Teleop26.8
End0.7
red by 12.8
7762
#21
18.50.4
21.521.9
Auto5.1
Teleop11.1
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
26%Auto oddsEarned20%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
54%Barge oddsEarned16%Barge oddsMissed