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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions79806070901001109963

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+20Auto
+22Teleop
+36Endgame
+36Fouls
AutonomousRed +20
0Leave3
5Coral scored#1
26Coral points3
26Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +2
12Coral scored#11
43Coral points41
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
57Total teleop55
Reef
8L4#5
4L3#3
2L2#1
3L1 · trough#3
20Game pieces#15
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +36
0Foul points0
99Total score63

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.42.2
31.834.0
Auto10.9
Teleop18.1
End8.3
red by 0.7
36.70.5
26.025.5
Auto2.7
Teleop31.1
End2.8
Second
3936
#14
25.52.2
13.816.0
Auto2.7
Teleop20.7
End2.1
blue by 9.0
34.50.5
26.125.6
Auto6.4
Teleop26.8
End1.2
Third
9227
#11
20.13.6
20.924.5
Auto4.4
Teleop13.7
End2.0
red by 17.1
9753
#35
3.00.5
15.414.9
Auto1.9
Teleop0.4
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
62%Auto oddsEarned44%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
34%Barge oddsEarned21%Barge oddsMissed