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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions108610501001508373

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+4Teleop
+4Endgame
+10Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
6Leave6
5Coral scored#1
24Coral points3
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +17
7Coral scored#13
25Coral points46
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
43Total teleop60
Reef
6L4#5
2L3#4
3L2#3
1L1 · trough#2
16Game pieces#17
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +10
6Foul points0
83Total score73

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
49.51.1
44.543.4
Auto17.1
Teleop26.7
End5.7
red by 18.2
288
#30
31.31.4
26.027.4
Auto5.0
Teleop22.4
End4.0
Second
3452
#18
31.30.8
27.226.4
Auto3.8
Teleop24.9
End2.6
red by 5.8
3936
#14
25.51.0
19.020.0
Auto2.7
Teleop20.7
End2.1
Third
9227
#11
20.11.1
17.816.6
Auto4.4
Teleop13.7
End2.0
red by 5.1
5462
#29
15.01.4
12.513.9
Auto2.9
Teleop10.3
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
83%Auto oddsEarned36%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
35%Barge oddsMissed24%Barge oddsMissed