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Red79
543627.6
925518.2
20139.3
Blue29
6833.9
570811.6
353847.1
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions911250501502002507929

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+36Teleop
+40Endgame
+50Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave6
2Coral scored#1
9Coral points3
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +33
8Coral scored#4
27Coral points14
2Processor algae#0
3Net algae#1
12Processor points0
12Net points4
24Algae points4
51Total teleop18
Reef
3L4#2
2L3#1
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
15Game pieces#6
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +50
10Foul points0
79Total score29

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
201
#12
39.31.1
34.633.5
Auto9.4
Teleop26.2
End3.8
blue by 7.8
3538
#18
47.15.4
46.140.6
Auto14.4
Teleop33.3
End-0.6
Second
5436
#19
27.61.1
31.029.9
Auto6.9
Teleop15.2
End5.5
blue by 6.3
68
#27
33.95.4
46.040.6
Auto9.7
Teleop18.5
End5.7
Third
9255
#25
18.21.1
19.518.4
Auto4.2
Teleop12.7
End1.3
red by 6.6
5708
#26
11.65.4
17.712.3
Auto1.0
Teleop10.1
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsEarned94%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed16%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
64%Barge oddsMissed40%Barge oddsMissed