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Red115
233760.5
609917.1
20139.3
Blue149
3366.8
353954.0
283427.2
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions155177050100200250300350115149

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
Teleop+22
Endgame+34
Fouls+34
AutonomousRed +9
9Leave3
4Coral scored#3
20Coral points17
29Total auto20
TeleoperatedBlue +31
14Coral scored#21
50Coral points77
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
12Processor points12
12Net points16
24Algae points28
74Total teleop105
Reef
7L4#10
5L3#7
4L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
23Game pieces#30
BargeBlue +12
12Cage & park24
12Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +34
0Foul points0
115Total score149

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2337
#15
60.52.8
76.073.2
Auto15.3
Teleop39.2
End6.0
blue by 6.3
33
#5
66.81.7
65.163.4
Auto15.6
Teleop43.2
End8.0
Second
201
#12
39.32.8
44.541.6
Auto9.4
Teleop26.2
End3.8
blue by 14.7
54.01.7
58.356.6
Auto13.2
Teleop31.8
End9.0
Third
6099
#21
17.12.8
16.813.9
Auto7.3
Teleop9.5
End0.3
blue by 10.1
2834
#20
27.21.7
31.429.8
Auto5.4
Teleop16.1
End5.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
83%Auto oddsEarned92%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
17%Coral oddsMissed33%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
45%Barge oddsMissed87%Barge oddsEarned