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Red81
96829.6
696312.3
550556.8
Blue76
516219.9
432723.1
917642.5
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions73854060801001201408176

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+5Teleop
+5Endgame
+5Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
9Leave6
3Coral scored#0
14Coral points0
23Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +12
9Coral scored#12
34Coral points44
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#4
12Processor points6
8Net points16
20Algae points22
54Total teleop66
Reef
6L4#3
2L3#5
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
16Game pieces#17
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +5
0Foul points0
81Total score76

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.80.6
44.445.0
Auto13.0
Teleop34.5
End9.3
red by 14.3
9176
#11
42.50.1
32.432.2
Auto3.5
Teleop32.4
End6.6
Second
6963
#39
12.30.6
11.111.7
Auto3.0
Teleop8.3
End1.1
blue by 10.7
4327
#36
23.10.1
26.226.0
Auto4.3
Teleop18.5
End0.2
Third
9682
#33
9.60.6
9.39.9
Auto3.3
Teleop5.8
End0.6
blue by 10.2
5162
#22
19.90.1
10.610.5
Auto4.1
Teleop13.7
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
44%Auto oddsEarned63%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
51%Barge oddsMissed33%Barge oddsMissed