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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions816720406010012067108

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
Teleop+11
Endgame+29
Fouls+41
AutonomousBlue +10
3Leave6
1Coral scored#3
6Coral points13
9Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +1
9Coral scored#9
34Coral points33
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#2
6Processor points12
12Net points8
18Algae points20
52Total teleop53
Reef
4L4#4
2L3#4
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
14Game pieces#16
BargeBlue +18
6Cage & park24
6Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +41
0Foul points12
67Total score108

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
302
#17
45.71.0
35.234.1
Auto15.1
Teleop29.6
End1.0
red by 7.3
2960
#13
38.43.0
29.031.9
Auto6.1
Teleop26.8
End5.5
Second
548
#3
37.81.0
29.428.4
Auto4.1
Teleop27.6
End6.1
red by 3.4
503
#12
34.41.8
23.425.1
Auto8.2
Teleop22.1
End4.1
Third
7221
#39
10.21.0
12.611.6
Auto4.0
Teleop3.3
End3.0
blue by 2.5
8519
#26
12.81.8
11.012.8
Auto4.9
Teleop6.3
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsMissed63%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
33%Barge oddsMissed10%Barge oddsEarned