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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions555520304050607080906025

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+11Teleop
+11Endgame
+35Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
0Leave3
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points6
10Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +10
4Coral scored#3
14Coral points10
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
6Processor points0
4Net points4
10Algae points4
24Total teleop14
Reef
3L4#1
2L3#1
1L2#1
0L1 · trough#1
8Game pieces#5
Bargelevel
2Cage & park2
2Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +35
24Foul points0
60Total score25

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8423
#22
18.50.9
19.718.8
Auto4.5
Teleop11.3
End2.6
blue by 4.2
5559
#21
22.72.0
20.318.3
Auto5.5
Teleop14.0
End3.2
Second
8519
#26
12.80.9
14.813.9
Auto4.9
Teleop6.3
End1.6
blue by 3.0
5205
#36
15.73.3
14.811.5
Auto3.2
Teleop10.3
End2.2
Third
9239
#30
9.11.5
15.013.5
Auto2.2
Teleop6.6
End0.2
blue by 6.0
5225
#31
15.13.3
19.616.3
Auto2.9
Teleop9.1
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
68%Auto oddsEarned73%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
40%Barge oddsEarned28%Barge oddsMissed